Food Security: Past and Future 25th Anniversary Essay by 2005 World Food Prize Laureate Modadugu Gupta
Through three decades of research and development, global food productivity has made great strides, including the increased production of crops (Green Revolution), milk (White Revolution), fish (Blue Revolution), and livestock. For example, fish production has increased from about 85 million tons in 1985 to 142 million tons by 2008. This growth was in spite of the fact that nearly two thirds of wild stocks have been either over-exploited or fully exploited and catches from the wild fisheries have stagnated. Demand for fish increased at twice population growth, as fish is the cheapest animal protein for the poor in developing countries. Increased fish production was made possible due to larger dependence on aquaculture, otherwise known as fish farming.
Aquaculture grew from less than one million ton in 1950 to over 52 million tons today, as a result of investments made in research for domestication of species for farming, better fish health management, etc. Without this research, the result would be: (1) more malnourished populations in developing countries where fish is the main source of animal protein consumed by the low-incomes households; and (2) exploitation, or even possible decimation, of wild stock. If this had occurred, revival would have been nearly impossible for the foreseeable future. Similarly, crop production has increased tremendously through development and implementation of Green Revolution technologies.
While food production breakthroughs have successfully saved millions of people from starvation and death, nearly a billion people still go to bed hungry. This is not only due to shortages in food production, but also due to poverty coming in the way of these people accessing food when available, and diversion of grains for biofuel. It is estimated that global food production has to increase by nearly 70% to meet the demand of growing population by 2050. In addition, global warming and its impacts on food production continue to be major concerns.
It is estimated that fish production has to increase by nearly 30 million tons by 2030 to meet the growing demand from increasing population, growing wealth and urbanisation. As most wild fish stocks have been over-exploited, there is little chance of increasing production from wild or capture fisheries. Therefore, this production increase must come from farming of fish in fresh and marine waters. Due to declining land and water resources, the increased production has to primarily come from sustainable usage of existing resources. While increased fish production is easily achievable, the true challenge for food security will be to increase grain production through sustainable practices – water and land management, and a balance in the use of grains for food, biofuel and animal feeds. Success will depend on political will of nations, implementation of appropriate policies and good governance.